Anyone need an extra seat?
Facebook
Reddit
del.icio.us
Stumble Upon
Next week the Conservative government will introduce a bill that would increase the size of the House of Commons from 308 seats to approximately 342. Ontario would receive 21 new seats, B.C. seven and Alberta six. A headline in the Globe and Mail read: “New Seats would give Tories best shot at majority.”
If that’s the best shot they have got, they are in pretty bad shape. Or, at least, they aren’t in any hurry.
In the United States, gerrymandering is quite common. State legislatures draw electoral boundaries for partisan advantage. One of the problems of politics in California is that the electoral boundaries have been so carefully drawn that virtually every seat is a safe Republican or a safe Democratic seat. Therefore, no matter what happens in the state’s politics, no effective public pressure can be brought to bear on its legislators.
In Canada the process of allocating seats is more impartial. It is also slow.
Every ten years, in years ending in “1,” there is a census in Canada. When the results of that census become known, the Chief Electoral Officer applies a formula that determines how many seats will be assigned to each province. This new bill will alter that formula by increasing the number of seats in the House of Commons.
Clearly the bill will not pass until well into 2010, assuming that there is no election. Then one of two things could happen. The government could proceed with a redistribution based on nine year-old census figures, or it could wait until the results of the 2011 census became available.
Even under the first scenario, which doesn’t really make a lot of sense, it would take about two years the Electoral Boundaries Commissions in each province to finalize their reports for the new riding boundaries. Once the new electoral districts are in place, it takes Elections Canada about a year to effect the transition. During a stable majority government, this is relatively straightforward, but the Chief Electoral Officer has, in the past, been unwilling to attempt a transition if a government might fall and there was no electoral machinery in place.
The Globe and Mail’s headline should have read: “A Tory Majority would give new seats their best shot.”
If that’s the best shot they have got, they are in pretty bad shape. Or, at least, they aren’t in any hurry.
In the United States, gerrymandering is quite common. State legislatures draw electoral boundaries for partisan advantage. One of the problems of politics in California is that the electoral boundaries have been so carefully drawn that virtually every seat is a safe Republican or a safe Democratic seat. Therefore, no matter what happens in the state’s politics, no effective public pressure can be brought to bear on its legislators.
In Canada the process of allocating seats is more impartial. It is also slow.
Every ten years, in years ending in “1,” there is a census in Canada. When the results of that census become known, the Chief Electoral Officer applies a formula that determines how many seats will be assigned to each province. This new bill will alter that formula by increasing the number of seats in the House of Commons.
Clearly the bill will not pass until well into 2010, assuming that there is no election. Then one of two things could happen. The government could proceed with a redistribution based on nine year-old census figures, or it could wait until the results of the 2011 census became available.
Even under the first scenario, which doesn’t really make a lot of sense, it would take about two years the Electoral Boundaries Commissions in each province to finalize their reports for the new riding boundaries. Once the new electoral districts are in place, it takes Elections Canada about a year to effect the transition. During a stable majority government, this is relatively straightforward, but the Chief Electoral Officer has, in the past, been unwilling to attempt a transition if a government might fall and there was no electoral machinery in place.
The Globe and Mail’s headline should have read: “A Tory Majority would give new seats their best shot.”
Comments